Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBetween 5e25 FLOP and 1.5e26 FLOP 75.5%+18.3ptEn tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+18.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète10 déc. 23, 20:17 UTC1 janv. 27, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This resolves as the bucket that contains the number of floating point operations (FLOP) used to train GPT-5
- FLOP may be performed at any precision (INT8, FP16, etc.)
- This resolves on the basis of the numbers reported by OpenAI, and, if they don't report this, on the basis of the first credible estimates reported in this database (details about the database may be found here)
- If GPT-5 is not released by EOY, 2027, this resolves ambiguously
- If the estimate is exactly on the edge of each range, we will resolve it as the largest of the two options