Prévision communautaire actuelle
2026 75.9%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète24 juin 25, 20:26 UTC1 janv. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Before 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves to the first year where a model is released that: 1.
- Can be run locally on a reasonable consumer phone 2.
- Has comparable scores on most benchmarks to o3-mini (medium).
- I will judge 2 based on benchmarks like Codeforces scores, AIME math, GPQA-Diamond, etc, but will use discretion if it seems obvious some benchmarks have been compromised and that the AI is clearly inferior to o3-mini.
- It will not need to surpass or match o3-mini's performance on all of these, but it will need to do so on the majority.
- Again, some discretion will be used here.