Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.6%
Prévisionnistes
85
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard24 janv. 26, 19:04 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
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Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will anyone train a GPT-4-level model in a minute?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves YES if it is possible to fully interpret a GPT-2 level capability model, or create an inherently interpretable GPT-2 level capability model.
- Anywhere below where I say "GPT-2" I mean it as shorthand for the above, rather than literally the specific GPT-2 model.
- There is no rigorous definition of "fully interpret", so it will be based on my opinion.
- But here are some examples of things we'd be able to do if we had full interpretability:
- Being able to come up with a detailed, fully granular explanation (e.g not about entire attention heads or "super nodes", but individual channels or features) that can be validated by some strong form of ablation (probably much stronger than zero/mean ablation).
- Being able to make very nontrivial and unobvious predictions about the model's behavior in unobserved situations.