Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78%
Oui 78%Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète26 mai 23, 21:18 UTC1 janv. 28, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By 2028 will an assisted LLM beat the Ender Dragon?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill "[Linkpost] Interpreting Language Model Parameters" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill we fully interpret a GPT-2 level language model by 2028?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
[SPRING](https://arxiv.org/abs/2305.15486) uses GPT-4 to play a simple Minecraft-like game.
- By 2028 will an LLM in this setup or a similar setup beat the Ender Dragon in Minecraft?
- (Note that I'm not going to count something like [Voyager](https://voyager.minedojo.org/), because it seems to me like they're making the problem too easy.
- I'll make a separate market for that)