Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 90.5%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète10 déc. 23, 22:10 UTC2 janv. 32, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Leading dark matter explanation by January 2045
Manifold MarketsWill the nature of dark matter be known by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Dark Matter still be real at the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRègles
Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).
- This market resolves to YES if two or more studies are published in either Science or the Nature family of journals by Jan. 1, 2032 that support the hypothesis that large igneous provinces are triggered by dark matter.
- The link between dark matter and volcanism must be one of the core parts of the article.
- (that is, it doesn't count if the hypothesis is just mentioned off-hand).
Marchés ouverts
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 226,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2 k €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 108,3 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2 k €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Is volcanism caused by dark matter? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 91% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Is volcanism caused by dark matter? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Is volcanism caused by dark matter? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2032.
- Comment Is volcanism caused by dark matter? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Some studies have suggested a link between dark matter and large igneous provinces in the geologic record (See, for instance: Rampino, 2015).