Iran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Moyen-OrientOne-Off6a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 84.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète18 juin 25, 15:14 UTC31 déc. 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2028?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2032, Iran is recognized as a liberal democracy.
- If there is no regime change before 2027, resolves N/A. Resolution will be based on the Freedom House classification, and Free or Partially Free both count.
- If the classification changes or is not published, I will choose a similar report.
