Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleHead of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time 100%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète22 mars 25, 13:13 UTC27 oct. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
100%
100%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Please add your own predictions to this market.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.
- Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions] ?
- Manifold Markets cote Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time à 100% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions] sera-t-il résolu ?
- Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions] doit être résolu le 27 octobre 2026.
- Comment Israel’s deterioration as a liberal democracy [add predictions] est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Please add your own predictions to this market.