In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
One-OffIAMacro & Economy17aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 52%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète2 nov. 23, 12:30 UTC31 déc. 43, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
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ForecastExADP employment change in Nov 2026?
KalshiRègles
As per the Twitter debate between Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) and Daniel Colson (@DanielColson6), this question - which was suggested by Daniel - looks to measure the impact of AI on jobs in the US.
- The data used to close the question to yes or no will be FRED's Employment Population Ratio 25-54 yrs. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12300060
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? sera-t-il résolu ?
- In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2043.
- Comment In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As per the Twitter debate between Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) and Daniel Colson (@DanielColson6), this question - which was suggested by Daniel - looks to measure the impact of AI on jobs in the US.