Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
InflationOne-OffMacro & Economy2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 85.8%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 heures
Obsolète2 sept. 26, 19:55 UTC31 août 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?
Manifold MarketsWill US prime-age participation exceed 84% by July 2027?
KalshiWill the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the increase in US Payroll Employment exceed 50,000 in September 2026?
ForecastExADP employment change in Nov 2026?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- We will use the first published value for August 2029, ignoring subsequent revisions.
- If no August 2029 value has been published by December 31, 2029, the bet is void and this market will be canceled.
- (This market tracks a charity bet between Andy McKenzie and Jeff Kaufman. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BQksdkrtXDbr3CtoE/ai-tweets?commentId=ZbgAGmbcnKZWtsgh6)
Marchés ouverts
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? doit être résolu le 31 août 2029.
- Comment Will the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the first published seasonally adjusted August 2029 value of FRED series LNS12300060 (Employment-Population Ratio – 25–54 Yrs.) is below 50.0%.