Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 73.3%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard14 mai 26, 17:32 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Shiller P/E Ratio hit a new all-time high before Jan 1, 2030?
Manifold MarketsHow high will the S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio get before its next 30% drawdown?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. prime-age employment-population ratio be below 50.0% in August 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Dominos say during their next earnings call?
KalshiWill the Citrini scenario happen?
KalshiLargest Company end of December 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Shiller P/E Ratio (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings Ratio, or CAPE) for the S&P 500 exceeds 50.0 at any point during the market's duration, based on the official data published by Robert Shiller.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the ratio remains at or below 50.0 through January 1, 2030.
- The primary source for resolution is the data provided at Robert Shiller’s Online Data website.
- Specifically, the market will refer to the "U.S. Stock Markets 1871-Present and CAPE Ratio" spreadsheet.
- If this data source becomes unavailable, the resolution will be based on the most widely accepted alternative index tracking the S&P 500 CAPE ratio, as reported by major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Wall Street Journal).
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 79,7 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3 k €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 73% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will the Shiller P/E Ratio exceed 50 by Jan 1, 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria