Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 69%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 25, 13:28 UTC1 janv. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRègles
See https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed and similar questions for AGI.
- The criteria is that one of them will resolve YES.
- I don't see a lot of singularity questions but there is this: https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/singularity-by-2030.
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 69% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred? sera-t-il résolu ?
- If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment If Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : See https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed and similar questions for AGI.