Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 67%
Prévisionnistes
79
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète31 mai 24, 23:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which people will say that AGI has been achieved, by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
Manifold MarketsWill SBF be released from prison before AGI is achieved
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketRègles
AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- 241,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 128 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 349,4 k €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)