Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 15:24 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleFreezing of Frontline without official negotions 35.4%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète3 sept. 23, 06:05 UTC1 janv. 30, 22:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
After the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Update 2025-06-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on whether one side achieves most of its strategic goals, with a huge misalignment in goal achievement required for a "the named outcome" resolution.
- Russia's strategic goals:
- Making Ukraine dependent on Russia (via annexation or political influence).
- Huge territorial gains (the creator will almost certainly resolve to a Russian win if 50% of Ukraine is annexed).
- Recognition of Crimea as Russian.
- Ukraine's strategic goals: