Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.7%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 oct. 25, 20:25 UTC31 déc. 27, 20:14 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will GPT-6 be considered to be AGI?
Manifold MarketsDoes Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.
- Grok 5 means the model and variations named Grok 5 (Grok 5 Pro, Grok 5 Code, Grok 5 Fast), and any of them being called AGI will count.
- A Grok 5.5, 5.1, 5.7, or other number variation wouldn't count.
- Elon has to refer to it as full AGI, not "very close to" or "at moments", or similar partial statements.
- The definition of AGI will be the one Elon uses too: "Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do", though Grokipedia could be used as a secondary source.
- Date will be extended if necessary until Grok 5 releases.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2027.
- Comment Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.