Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 78.4%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète30 janv. 26, 16:49 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by which date?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsDoes Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI?
Manifold Marketswhen will OpenAI have announced they have achieved AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk posts on X (formerly Twitter) a tweet explicitly stating that a Grok successor model has achieved "AGI-level performance," "AGI has been reached," or substantially equivalent language claiming AGI achievement by December 31, 2026.
- The tweet must be posted by @elonmusk's verified account and must specifically reference a Grok model version (e.g., Grok 5, Grok 6, etc.).
- Resolution is based on the literal text of the tweet; claims about "approaching AGI" or "near-AGI capabilities" do not qualify.
- The market resolves NO if no such tweet is posted by the deadline.
- Elon Musk predicts that his company xAI could achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the next couple of years, and maybe as soon as 2026.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria