When will a single AI system demonstrate autonomous expert-level performance across 3+ fundamentally different domains?
IAOne-Off14a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore Dec 2039 84.2%En tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Variation 7j
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Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète28 févr. 26, 01:53 UTC1 janv. 41, 06:59 UTC
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Règles
Multi-Domain AGI: one model (same weights, no domain-specific fine-tuning) demonstrates autonomous expert-level performance in 3+ fundamentally different domains (e.g., software engineering, scientific research, legal/medical/financial professional services).
- Must complete substantive end-to-end professional tasks autonomously, not just answer questions.
- Each domain verified by independent expert panels in blinded evaluation.
- Exam-based domains require 90th percentile scores.
- Full methodology: https://www.future-shock.ai/research/agi-predictions
- Future Shock ensemble prediction: October 2027 (±6 months).
