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Non 79%
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5
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 25, 09:46 UTC1 janv. 41, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
PolymarketOpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiJapan Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRègles
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For instance, it went from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to around $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts argue that the emergence of AGI—or an AI passing the Turing test—could radically boost productivity and compress this timeline, allowing the economy to double in just 2 years.
- This question focuses on whether that transformative AI milestone will, in fact, speed up U.S. nominal GDP growth to such an extent.
- Resolution Criteria
- Event Trigger: A widely recognized, public declaration that an AI system has achieved AGI or passed the Turing test.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 541,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 334,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8 k €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 77,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5 k €
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2041.
- Comment When AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.