Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 86.3%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète19 janv. 26, 03:42 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Elon Musk tweet that a Grok Sucessor has achieved 'AGI-level performance' or 'AGI has been reached' in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk apologize for Grok being too left wing or 'woke' in the second half of 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets in October 2026?
PolymarketWill Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by which date?
PolymarketRègles
If Grok 5 is never released, this market resolves N/A.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Does Elon Musk claim Grok 5 is an AGI? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If Grok 5 is never released, this market resolves N/A.