Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 79.9%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète28 juil. 23, 08:54 UTC1 janv. 43, 21:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the fast-growth side win the benjaminmoll growth bet?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiRègles
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Explosive growth bet ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 80% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Explosive growth bet sera-t-il résolu ?
- Explosive growth bet doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2043.
- Comment Explosive growth bet est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.