Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
One-OffIA16aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72%
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète20 août 23, 22:09 UTC2 janv. 43, 05:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Explosive growth bet
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PolymarketRègles
Details in this blog post.
- Barnett wins if:
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Marchés ouverts
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 10,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 125,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 156,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 26,1 k €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 résultats de plus
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 72% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2043.
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- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Details in this blog post.