Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 94%
Prévisionnistes
196
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard19 janv. 23, 18:31 UTC31 janv. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan publicly apologize for saying something controversial by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan vote LIBERTARIAN in the 2028 presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
Manifold MarketsInstant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRègles
To summarize:
- This market resolves to "Yes" if Bryan Caplan wins and the AI fails his exams.
- This market resolves to "No" if Matthew Barnett wins and the AI passes Caplan's exam
- Details here: https://betonit.substack.com/p/ai-bet
- By January 30, 2029, Bryan Caplan will give his six most recent midterm exams to an AI selected by Matthew Barnett.
- The AI will be instructed to take those exams.
