Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 78%
Prévisionnistes
507
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète7 déc. 22, 22:12 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill an AI related disaster kill a million people or cause $1T of damage before 2070?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRègles
By 2027-12-31, will we be able to synthesize basically any photo from a text description and sample images of people we want in the photo?
- Resolution criteria: I'm doing my best to make this objective by adding to the FAQ below and am hopeful that it won't come down to a judgment call.
- If it does, I'll do my best to gather input and hew to the spirit of the prediction.
- I'm betting in this market myself and promise to be transparent about my reasoning in the comments.
- Does the photo have to be undetectable as AI-generated?
- No, if the photo is perfectly believable on casual inspection but can be determined to be AI-generated with some forensics, that still counts as YES.