Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
ÉconomieOne-OffIAMacro & Economy8aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78.5%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 minutes
28 août 26, 12:26 UTC1 janv. 35, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.
Manifold MarketsWill the fast-growth side win the benjaminmoll growth bet?
Manifold MarketsMacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win?
KalshiExplosive growth bet
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiWill New York's quarterly GDP growth exceed 5% in Q2 2026?
ForecastExRègles
Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X
- [link preview]Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the "fast-growth" (Explosive AI-driven growth) side of the bet wins.
- It will resolve to NO if the "no-fast-growth" side (which Benjamin Moll is betting on) wins.
- According to the official bet terms, the fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q , up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q-4 (i.e., at least one year before Q).
- Otherwise, the no-fast-growth side wins.
Marchés ouverts
EconomyKALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 758 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18,7 k €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No95%
- Yes+1.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 3,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 15,3 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 200,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 14,5 k €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 321 k €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 52,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
- Above 545,000 jobs97%
- Above 550,000 jobs87%
- Above 555,000 jobs+6.0pt49%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 89,7 k €
- Recession in 2027?
- CPI in October
- Mexico GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Will the IMF declare a global recession before 2027?
- China Annual GDP Growth 2026
- US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- US recession by end of 2026?
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
- CPI core in November 2026
- GDP growth in 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 79% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Ben Moll (@ben_moll) on X