KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
Below 15% 72.7%Ajusté de la marge : les cotes brutes dépassaient 100 % au total et ont été normalisées.
Qualité du marché
28 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
22,8 €
Faible liquiditéAchat / Vente
20.0% / 29.0%
Écart
9.0 pt
Spread largeDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
28 août 26, 22:00 UTC26 janv. 34, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsCPI in September
KalshiInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill China overtake the United States as the world's largest economy before the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsRègles
If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least
Règlement via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is based on the public challenge agreed upon in August 2026 between the following sides:
- MacAskill side (fast growth): William MacAskill, Samuel Albanie and Tom Cohen Moll side (no fast growth): Benjamin Moll and Andrew Ho
- GROWTH CONDITION
- The MacAskill side wins if, for any quarter from Q3 2026 through Q4 2033, U.S. real GDP per capita is at least 15% above the previous peak.
Marchés ouverts
InflationPOLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 2 (50 bps)-0.5pt59.8%
- 3 (75 bps)+1.2pt25.5%
- 1 (25 bps)-2.0pt13.7%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 493,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHICPI in September
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above -0.4%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 200,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 14,5 k €
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+1.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%98%
- Above 3.1%-1.0pt97%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 321 k €
KALSHICore inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- Above 2.1%99%
- Above 2.2%98%
- Above 2.3%-1.0pt85%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 52,2 k €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETAnother Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes-1.0pt86%
- No+1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 70,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,6 k €
KALSHICPI in October
- Above -0.1%+3.0pt93%
- Above 0.0%-6.0pt85%
- Above 0.1%+7.0pt83%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 37,9 k €
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- CPI core in November 2026
- Core inflation in November 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
- September Inflation US - Annual
- September Inflation US - Monthly
- September Inflation China - Annual
- Inflation in November 2026 (CPI YoY)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- China Annual Inflation 2026
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? ?
- Kalshi cote Below 15% à 73% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? sera-t-il résolu ?
- MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? doit être résolu le 26 janvier 2034.
- Comment MacAskill–Moll AI growth challenge · Who will win? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the highest percentage increase in U.S. real GDP per capita over its previous peak for Q3 2026 through Q4 2033 is at least