Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflationOne-OffÉconomieIAMacro & Economy8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 75%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 30 minutes
3 févr. 25, 09:03 UTC1 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.