Will AGI cause US nominal GDP to at least double between 2025 to 2035?
InflationOne-OffÉconomieIAMacro et économie8a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 20:28 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 4 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 25, 09:03 UTC1 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US nominal GDP growth in 2034
KalshiWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 2 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 1 year?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 10 years?
Manifold MarketsWhen AI has achieved AGI, will U.S. nominal GDP at least double within 7 years?
Manifold MarketsUS Nominal GDP in 2026
KalshiRègles
Historically, the U.S. economy has taken about 15–20 years to double in size when looking at nominal GDP.
- For example, it rose from roughly $10 trillion in 2000 to about $20 trillion in 2017.
- Some experts now argue that artificial intelligence could drive faster growth, potentially allowing the economy to double every 10 years—much shorter than the usual historical timeline.
- This question focuses on whether AI-driven productivity gains will accelerate U.S. economic expansion enough to double nominal GDP from 2025 to 2035.
- Resolution Criteria
- Data Source: The annual nominal (current-dollar) GDP figures published by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
