Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffMiddle East4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.1%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète20 mars 26, 23:27 UTC1 janv. 31, 00:26 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
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PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear weapon and then pre-emptively nukes Israel, without Israel first nuking Iran.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 86% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2031.
- Comment Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear weapon and then pre-emptively nukes Israel, without Israel first nuking Iran.