Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète22 août 26, 20:36 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsIf AI wipes out humanity, which organization(s) will be primarily responsible for the development of this AI?
Manifold MarketsConditional on at least one AI system causing more than 100 deaths in the next 12 months, what's the type of attack?
Manifold MarketsNew pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketNew pandemic before 2028?
PolymarketMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
Marchés ouverts
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 22,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8 k €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Indifferent (to humans) AI à 38% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2050.
- Comment Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria