Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

IAOne-OffRégulation

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 59%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 heures

Obsolète

25 déc. 23, 22:10 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?

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Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

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"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

Manifold Markets

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Kalshi

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Polymarket

Règles

If we solve alignment, we still have to make sure that people create aligned AIs and don't create unaligned AIs - at least, don't create unaligned AIs beyond a certain level of "power".

This seems hard!

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché

Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

IAOne-OffRégulation

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 59%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 10 heures

Obsolète

25 déc. 23, 22:10 UTC31 déc. 50, 23:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Marchés Associés

Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.

Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?

Manifold Markets

Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?

Manifold Markets

"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?

Manifold Markets

Anthropic IPO by which date?

Polymarket

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

Kalshi

What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?

Polymarket

Règles

If we solve alignment, we still have to make sure that people create aligned AIs and don't create unaligned AIs - at least, don't create unaligned AIs beyond a certain level of "power".

This seems hard!

Signaler un problème de données sur ce marché

Questions fréquentes

Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? ?: Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
Quand Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? sera-t-il résolu ?: Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2050.
Comment Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs? est-il réglé ?: Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : If we solve alignment, we still have to make sure that people create aligned AIs and don't create unaligned AIs - at least, don't create unaligned AIs beyond a certain level of "power".

Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?

Questions fréquentes

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