Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 85%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète11 mars 23, 17:20 UTC1 janv. 45, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRègles
@EliezerYudkowsky has made the solid case that AI Alignment is sufficiently intractable & AI timelines are short enough that the 1st AGI will not be aligned with human values.
- (Note: My definition for 1st AGI[Artificial General Intelligence] is the first Artificial Intelligence that can match or outperform humans on all intellectual tasks) However, AI Alignment shouldn't only be a thorny problem for humans to solve, but also for the 1st AGI itself to solve too.
- It's possible that rapid take-off may be limited by the AI Alignment problem, as an ASI misaligned with the 1st AGI would be a far greater threat to it accomplishing its goals than humanity is.
- (Note: My definition for an ASI[Artificial Super Intelligence] is an Artificial Intelligence that outperforms the 1st AGI on all intellectual tasks by at least the same margin it outperforms humans) That doesn't necessarily mean we'd be safe from the 1st AGI even though it's misaligned because even though a rapid takeoff puts an AGI at risk from an ASI misaligned with itself, humans are also a potential risk as a source of AGIs or ASIs that are misaligned with the 1st AGI.
- This resolves true if;
- - The case in the title happens or something to that spirit
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 85% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2045.
- Comment Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : @EliezerYudkowsky has made the solid case that AI Alignment is sufficiently intractable & AI timelines are short enough that the 1st AGI will not be aligned with human values.