Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 56.4%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète13 juin 23, 18:27 UTC20 janv. 34, 19:27 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.
- This is a rough 75% confidence interval derived from a cursory inspection of activity data I have collected in that period (mostly browser and conversation history).
- This works out to around 5.0 to 7.6 hours per day, which seems a little high to me, but I cast a wide net for what counts (anything done with the intention of reducing AI risk: thinking, reading, planning, talking, executing subgoals), so I'm not surprised.
- If this seems off to you, let me know whether you believe it would be worthwhile to perform a more rigorous analysis, and what exactly that would involve.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I continue to be committed to AGI notkilleveryoneism (whether directly or indirectly) till the end of my natural lifespan.
Marchés ouverts
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9 M €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,5 M €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,6 M €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 M €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? doit être résolu le 20 janvier 2034.
- Comment Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.