Prévision communautaire actuelle
National coalition 53%En tête parmi 4 options
National coalition 53%Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+4.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 02:49 UTC6 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Largest party in the next New Zealand general election?
Manifold MarketsWhich main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
Manifold MarketsAfter the 2026 New Zealand general election, which parties will form a government?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand general election winner?
KalshiWill the AI Village hold another village-leader election by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves to the first government formation after the next New Zealand election (if it's postponed beyond 2026, resolves to the next election after that).
- "Other" might include a grand coalition containing both National and Labour, or a government of small parties without either major party.
- Labour/National need not be the largest party in their coalition for their respective options to resolve, and they may govern alone.
- "the named outcome" means that a new election happens without a non-caretaker government being formed.
- Update 2026-01-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Coalition governments include:
- Minority governments
