Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
National Party 64.6%En tête parmi 7 options
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+20.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète17 sept. 24, 05:51 UTC19 déc. 26, 10:59 UTC
Tendances
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Opportunities Party get at least one seat in the next New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWhich main party will form a Government after the 2026 New Zealand General Election
Manifold MarketsWill Christopher Luxon still be Prime Minister of New Zealand when the 2026 general election is held?
Manifold MarketsNew Zealand general election winner?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRègles
The next New Zealand general election is to be held on or before Saturday, 19 December 2026, most likely in November 2026 although it could be called at any time.
- Will be resolved based on the results available at https://electionresults.govt.nz/.
- Resolution will be for the largest party, not necessarily the party that enters government.
- Largest party will be by number of seats, using party vote percent if there is a tie.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? ?
- Manifold Markets cote National Party à 65% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? doit être résolu le 19 décembre 2026.
- Comment Largest party in the next New Zealand general election? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The next New Zealand general election is to be held on or before Saturday, 19 December 2026, most likely in November 2026 although it could be called at any time.