Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 15:50 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOther 76.3%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 26, 13:04 UTC4 nov. 26, 01:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Opus would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
