Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle30h - 32.5h 17.5%En tête parmi 12 options
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète20 févr. 26, 19:34 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
Marchés ouverts
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 135,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7 k €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 325 k €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon ?
- Manifold Markets cote 30h - 32.5h à 18% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon sera-t-il résolu ?
- Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 model to appear on METR's graph.