Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle9h - 10h 17%En tête parmi 20 options
Prévisionnistes
54
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète18 déc. 25, 00:39 UTC1 déc. 26, 00:37 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Sonnet 4.6 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Sonnet 4.7 counts for the purpose of this market, if 4.6 is skipped.
- So does 4.75, but 5 would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
