Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 17.5%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
24
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète13 déc. 25, 18:22 UTC1 nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Grok 5 METR 50% time horizon
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PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the first 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for Grok 4.2 / Grok 4.20.
- If Grok 4.2 is never released, this market resolves N/A. If there is some coding- or other form of specialized version (e.g. Grok 4.20 Code), it will not count for the purpose if this market.
- A model expected to be called Grok 4.20 Heavy (using parallel test-time compute) would not count for this market, but Grok 4.20 Thinking, Grok 4.20 High, or Grok 4.20 xhigh, would all count for the purpose of this market.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
