Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 12:56 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle>=12h 89.2%+0.9ptEn tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 août 25, 23:05 UTC30 oct. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- @gZsNQCnsuh (this market)