Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle>=12h 89.2%+0.9ptEn tête parmi 15 options
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.4 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète8 août 25, 23:05 UTC30 oct. 26, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Grok 4.20 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the METR time horizon doubling time in 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for any Grok 5 model released within a month of the first Grok 5 announcement.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
- As of April 2026, frontier time horizons are around 12 hours, with a doubling time of roughly 4 months.
- [image]Left bounds inclusive, right bounds exclusive.
- @gZsNQCnsuh (this market)