Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOther 98.3%+0.1ptEn tête parmi 9 options
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.1 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète2 févr. 26, 13:06 UTC30 oct. 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsGrok 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 5 thinking model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 5.1 or 6 counts for the purpose of this market, if 5 is skipped. 4.6 or 4.7 would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's "Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Tasks" for the technical definition.
- Claude 3.7 Sonnet, released in February 2025, was the leading model with a 50% horizon of 59 minutes.
