Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle18h - 20h 30.8%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète30 mai 26, 18:15 UTC1 nov. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Claude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsDeepSeek V4 Pro METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released on?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketRègles
This market will resolve to the highest 50% time horizon, as reported by METR, for the first Claude Opus 4.8 model to appear on METR's graph.
- Claude Opus 4.8.x variants count for the purpose of this market. 4.7 or earlier would not count.
- Opus 5 or later would not count.
- Sonnet would not count.
- 50% time horizon is a measure of AI autonomy based on the length of tasks that AI can do: roughly, it is the time that humans take to complete tasks that an AI system can successfully do 50% of the time.
- See METR's Time Horizon 1.1 update for the technical definition.
