By the time a ceasefire or peace treaty between Ukraine & Russia is signed, will UA partially control Crimea?
GéopolitiqueOne-OffRussie / Ukraine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73%
Prévisionnistes
48
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète13 sept. 23, 20:40 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Russia agree to a peace treaty that gives Ukraine control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine agree to a peace treaty that gives Russia control of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine have partial control over Crimea by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia to control Crimea through the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine control any of Crimea before it takes back most of Luhansk or Donetsk?
Manifold MarketsRègles
The question will resolve to yes if the interactive map of the Institute for the Study of War shows that Ukraine controls any part of the Crimea Oblast at the time when a ceasefire (or a peace treaty) is signed.
- The Crimea Oblast is as defined in the Ukrainian maps before the 2014 Russian invasion.
- It includes any outlying islands and other natural formations but excludes rigs or other man-made structures.
- If there is no ceasefire or peace signed until the end of 2026, the question will resolve to NA.
