Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 83.4%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète12 avr. 26, 01:24 UTC21 janv. 31, 02:17 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will at least one woman walk on the Moon during the first landing of the Artemis program ?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the latitude of the first Artemis lunar landing?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketRussian Luna-27 probe to find resources that can be used as fuel on the lunar soil by the end of 2028?
FutuurRègles
Resolves YES if Artemis lands on moon with boots on lunar surface before Chinese human boots on the lunar surface, AND Chinese do not land on lunar surface with human boots within 2 years OR immediately totally shift focus to another solar body for astronaut landings.
- Resolves NO if Chinese put human boots on the moon before Artemis OR within 2 years of Artemis human lunar landing Chinese replicate the feat.
- Market will be extended as necessary but resolves once clarity.
- Sources will be official communications of the relevant national space agencies or eminently reliable reporting.
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 83% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2031.
- Comment Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Artemis lands on moon with boots on lunar surface before Chinese human boots on the lunar surface, AND Chinese do not land on lunar surface with human boots within 2 years OR immediately totally shift focus to another solar body for astronaut landings.