Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 62.7%
Prévisionnistes
22
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète25 mars 24, 08:19 UTC1 janv. 35, 12:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsMLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)
PolymarketWill Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiRègles
SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.
- Delivering such a vehicle to the moon will require multiple in-orbit propellant refillings in order to provide sufficient delta v.
- Will all Starship-SuperHeavy launches intended to deliver propellant to a vehicle in orbit for this purpose have a successful landing of both the booster and ship?
- A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a ship or booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts as a successful landing.
- A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count.
- A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 63% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.