Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 60%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète4 janv. 24, 02:01 UTC2 janv. 32, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)
PolymarketIn 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRègles
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2032.
- Comment Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?