In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
IAOne-Off4a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 84.1%
Prévisionnistes
109
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète3 févr. 23, 16:31 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
See https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mostly-skeptical-thoughts-on-the (note that I'm asking about the inverse of his 4th prediction).
- Resolution criteria from the post: "The AI will fail this task if there’s any kind of post I write that it can’t imitate - for example analyzing scientific data, or writing fiction, or reviewing books.
- It will fail this task it it writes fluently but says false things (at a rate higher than I do), eg if it makes up references.
- It doesn’t have to be able to coordinate complex multistep projects like the Book Review Contest".
- Related markets:
