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Qualité du marché
30 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
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Liquidité
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Liquidité inconnueDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
25 août 26, 12:25 UTC1 oct. 26, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Iranian Regime fall before October?
MyriadWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketIf Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsIf the US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
LimitlessIf the US strikes Iran by June 30th, 2026, will the Iranian regime fall in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran.
- This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify.
- Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify.
- Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
2 plateformes cotent actuellement ce marché. La probabilité de référence pondérée par la liquidité de CoinRithm pour Référence CoinRithm est de 1%. Les cotations s'écartent d'environ 49 points de pourcentage entre les plateformes extrêmes.
Référence CoinRithm 1% · 2 plateformes · 49 pt d’ecart entre venues
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? ?
- Limitless cote Yes à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? est-il réglé ?
- Limitless règle ce marché comme suit : <p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Où Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur Polymarket, Myriad.