KalshiVérifier la disponibilitéKYC requis2% de fraisDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréProbabilité implicite actuelle
2.1% to 2.5% 15%En tête parmi 14 options
Qualité du marché
48 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
14,4 k €
Liquidité moyenneÉcart
5.0 pt
Spread modéréDonnées du marché
Mis à jour il y a 4 minutes
8 juin 26, 20:00 UTC28 févr. 28, 13:29 UTC
Tendances
Actifs Sensibles au Macro
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
US real GDP growth in 2026?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2036?
KalshiUS real GDP growth in 2028?
KalshiWill the annualized growth rate in US Real GDP exceed 2.5% in Q4 2027?
ForecastExWhat will be Argentina's average annual real GDP growth during the presidency of Javier Milei?
Manifold MarketsUS real GDP growth in 2029?
KalshiRègles
If the United States real GDP growth in 2027 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Règlement via:Bureau of Economic Analysis
- This market is based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the United States for calendar year 2027.
- The Expiration Value will be the first-published annual percent change in real GDP for 2027 from BEA’s GDP release, expected with the advance estimate of Q4 2027 GDP in early 2028.
- Revisions published after expiration will not be considered.
- All stated bounds are inclusive.
- For example, “5.6% to 6.0%” includes both 5.6% and 6.0%, “the named outcome” includes 6.1%, and “the named outcome” includes 0.0%.
Marchés ouverts
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 91 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 569,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4 k €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 359,2 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-2.0pt94%
- Above -5.0% of GDP-6.0pt90%
- Above -4.5% of GDP80%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 16,4 k €
KALSHIGermany’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.0% of GDP-1.0pt96%
- Above -4.5% of GDP-8.0pt86%
- Above -4.0% of GDP+1.0pt51%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No78%
- Yes-3.0pt22%
- Volume total
- 314,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5 k €
- CPI core in August
- US government budget balance in 2026
- Japan’s government budget balance in 2026
- CPI in September
- US recession by end of 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Recession this year?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
Cryptos liées
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour US real GDP growth in 2027? ?
- Kalshi cote 2.1% to 2.5% à 15% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand US real GDP growth in 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- US real GDP growth in 2027? doit être résolu le 28 février 2028.
- Comment US real GDP growth in 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Kalshi règle ce marché comme suit : If the United States real GDP growth in 2027 is below 0.1%, then the market resolves to Yes.