Probabilité implicite actuelle
Oui 78%
Qualite du marche
32 / 100
Faible qualitéVolume 24h
—
Liquidité
775,4 €
Faible liquiditéTraders
9
Comments
0
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 minute
Tendances
Règles
This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be NASA’s Global Temperature Index (GISTEMP) annual data release for 2026.
- If NASA’s data shows that 2026 has the highest global average temperature on record at the time of release, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If NASA ceases to publish this data or it is exceptionally unclear, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on equivalent datasets from other major climate authorities, such as the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive ranking of 2026’s temperature relative to prior years, not later data revisions.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? ?
- Futuur cote Yes à 78% au 25 août 2026.
- Quand Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? est-il réglé ?
- Futuur règle ce marché comme suit : This event predicts whether 2026 will be the warmest year on record based on global average surface temperature measurements.
- Où Will 2026 be the warmest year on record? est-il également listé ?
- La même question est également listée sur ForecastEx, Manifold Markets.