Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery?
Russia / UkraineOne-OffCiencia4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 71%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado27 ago 26, 5:31 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves to YES if, while Yuri Oganessian is alive, the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) or the IUPAC/IUPAP Joint Working Party (JWP) officially announces the validation and recognition of the discovery of any new chemical element with an atomic number of 119 or greater.
- The official IUPAC announcement of discovery validation (similar to the historical verifications for elements 113, 115, 117, and 118) will serve as the primary source of truth.
- The market resolves to NO if Yuri Oganessian passes away before such an official announcement of validation is publicly released by IUPAC.
- Informal or unverified claims of synthesis, papers published in peer-reviewed journals without joint IUPAC/IUPAP validation, or temporary placeholder systematic names do not suffice to trigger a "YES" resolution.
- Formal validation from IUPAC/IUPAP is required.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery??
- Está previsto que Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Yuri Oganessian live to see the announcement of a new chemical element discovery??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria