Will William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crimen y justiciaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 3:24 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.1%
Pronosticadores
28
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado9 ene 23, 3:33 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill William MacAskill ever win the Nobel Peace Prize?
Manifold MarketsWill Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketReglas
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that William MacAskill (philosopher and activist) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
