Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 98.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado21 may 24, 8:49 UTC31 dic 29, 22:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Criteria for Resolution:
- Assassination Attempt: An assassination attempt is defined as any deliberate action intended to kill the CEO of a major AI lab.
- The attempt must be publicly reported and confirmed by credible sources, such as news agencies, law enforcement reports, or official statements from the affected company.
- Major AI Labs: Currently, the definition of major AI labs for this question includes OpenAI, Anthropic, and DeepMind.
- As time progresses, new labs can be added or removed from this list, but the labs must be generally considered top-tier in the AI research and development field.
- The total number of labs on the list will not exceed five at any given time.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.1pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+2.1pt14.9%
- Gemini-3.0pt9.3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 124,1 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt76%
- December 15,+6.0pt73%
- November 30,+2.0pt52%
+7 resultados más
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt98%
- October 31-1.2pt97%
- September 30+5.0pt94%
+5 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,9 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 resultados más
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+5.5pt92%
- Moonshot-4.9pt7%
- Z.ai-0.5pt1%
+8 resultados más
- Best AI this week
- Will OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released on?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 98% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030??
- Está previsto que Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Criteria for Resolution: